Higher-timeframe trend
WAITCompleted 1-hour and 4-hour trends disagree
Paper-trading only
BTC Consensus Lab
A daily tracking page for the MiroFish-inspired BTC consensus experiment. It reads public BTC-USD candles, counts model votes and shows what a small paper account would have done.
Proof-of-concept rule
Track operations for 60-90 days, then require broader out-of-sample evidence before any live trial.
Current signal
BUY
18 buy / 1 sell / 2 wait votes
Signal quality
MEDIUM
choppy regime · 74/100 quality score
BTC price
$79,708.99
Latest Coinbase BTC-USD candle close
Paper P&L
-$2.49
-1.25% on a $200 paper account
Proof status
Early
5 paper trades logged in this rolling sample
Shadow challenger
BTC Strategy V2
The existing strict 18/21 model remains the control. V2 also requires four of five capped evidence families, uses volatility-based risk and records only simulated trades.
Live orders disabled
Candidate action
WAIT
3/4 families aligned
Market state
TREND
weekday us
Durable paper ledger
COLLECTING
13995 events · 215 closed trades
V2 paper equity
$110.72
-$89.28 net closed P&L
Independent evidence families
Unavailable external inputs are shown and never estimatedEntry trigger
BUYClose confirmed a 20-candle upside breakout
Volatility state
BUYATR 0.103% is inside the tradable experiment range
Participation and liquidity
BUYRecent BTC volume and three-candle price flow confirm the raw direction
Asset-specific context
WAITBTC derivatives context is not configured and is not fabricated.
Entry blockers: fewer than 4 independent families
Risk experiment: 0.5% account risk · 2.5R target · costs included
This is an operational paper-monitoring checkpoint, not statistical proof of profitability. V2 cannot be promoted automatically, and this monitoring does not guarantee profit.
Consensus vote table
Threshold: 18/21Moving average 3/8
BUYCompares short-term price direction against the longer trend.
Moving average 5/13
BUYCompares short-term price direction against the longer trend.
Moving average 8/21
BUYCompares short-term price direction against the longer trend.
Moving average 10/30
BUYCompares short-term price direction against the longer trend.
Moving average 12/34
SELLCompares short-term price direction against the longer trend.
Momentum 1 candles
BUYChecks whether price improved over this recent 5-minute candle window.
Momentum 2 candles
BUYChecks whether price improved over this recent 5-minute candle window.
Momentum 3 candles
BUYChecks whether price improved over this recent 5-minute candle window.
Momentum 5 candles
BUYChecks whether price improved over this recent 5-minute candle window.
Momentum 8 candles
BUYChecks whether price improved over this recent 5-minute candle window.
Momentum 13 candles
BUYChecks whether price improved over this recent 5-minute candle window.
Momentum 21 candles
BUYChecks whether price improved over this recent 5-minute candle window.
Breakout 5 candles
BUYLooks for a close above recent highs or below recent lows.
Breakout 10 candles
BUYLooks for a close above recent highs or below recent lows.
Breakout 20 candles
BUYLooks for a close above recent highs or below recent lows.
Breakout 30 candles
WAITLooks for a close above recent highs or below recent lows.
RSI reversal
WAITFlags oversold or overbought conditions.
Volume-confirmed candle
BUYRequires unusual volume before trusting the last candle direction.
Last candle direction
BUYSimple last-candle direction vote.
Price above 20-candle average
BUYChecks whether price is above the recent average.
Price above 50-candle average
BUYChecks whether price is above the broader intraday average.
| Model | Vote | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Moving average 3/8 | BUY | Compares short-term price direction against the longer trend. |
| Moving average 5/13 | BUY | Compares short-term price direction against the longer trend. |
| Moving average 8/21 | BUY | Compares short-term price direction against the longer trend. |
| Moving average 10/30 | BUY | Compares short-term price direction against the longer trend. |
| Moving average 12/34 | SELL | Compares short-term price direction against the longer trend. |
| Momentum 1 candles | BUY | Checks whether price improved over this recent 5-minute candle window. |
| Momentum 2 candles | BUY | Checks whether price improved over this recent 5-minute candle window. |
| Momentum 3 candles | BUY | Checks whether price improved over this recent 5-minute candle window. |
| Momentum 5 candles | BUY | Checks whether price improved over this recent 5-minute candle window. |
| Momentum 8 candles | BUY | Checks whether price improved over this recent 5-minute candle window. |
| Momentum 13 candles | BUY | Checks whether price improved over this recent 5-minute candle window. |
| Momentum 21 candles | BUY | Checks whether price improved over this recent 5-minute candle window. |
| Breakout 5 candles | BUY | Looks for a close above recent highs or below recent lows. |
| Breakout 10 candles | BUY | Looks for a close above recent highs or below recent lows. |
| Breakout 20 candles | BUY | Looks for a close above recent highs or below recent lows. |
| Breakout 30 candles | WAIT | Looks for a close above recent highs or below recent lows. |
| RSI reversal | WAIT | Flags oversold or overbought conditions. |
| Volume-confirmed candle | BUY | Requires unusual volume before trusting the last candle direction. |
| Last candle direction | BUY | Simple last-candle direction vote. |
| Price above 20-candle average | BUY | Checks whether price is above the recent average. |
| Price above 50-candle average | BUY | Checks whether price is above the broader intraday average. |
Daily chat-style summary
The current paper signal is BUY, but this remains proof-of-concept only. The vote split is 18 buy, 1 sell and 2 wait out of 21. The rolling $200 paper test is down $2.49 before any live-trading decision.
Paper account
- Starting balance
- $200.00
- Ending balance
- $197.51
- Trade count
- 5
- Win rate
- 0.00%
- Max drawdown
- 1.16%
- Position
- LONG
- Suggested action
- HOLD
- Last exit reason
- consensus-exit
- Risk controls
- SL 1.5% / TP 3% / Trail 1.2%
LLM cost tracker
- Model
- gpt-4o-mini
- Estimated per run
- $0.0006
- Estimated daily
- $0.17
- Estimated monthly
- $5.18
- Run cadence
- 288/day
- Tokens/run
- 2,000 in / 500 out
This is an estimated LLM cost tracker for BTC summary generation. It does not include market-data APIs, Vercel hosting, exchange fees or live-trading costs.
Safety note
This is paper-trading only. No live exchange order is placed. This page is for tracking whether the idea deserves more testing. It is not financial advice and it does not execute orders.
A 60-90 day shadow run is an operational checkpoint only. Promotion requires cost-aware multi-regime walk-forward and untouched holdout evidence.
Source: Coinbase public BTC-USD 5-minute candles. Generated: 9/4/2026, 7:05:54 PM.