Higher-timeframe trend
SELLCompleted 1-hour and 4-hour trends both support SELL
Paper-trading only
Gold Consensus Lab
A separate XAU/USD gold tracking page using Twelve Data market candles. It counts consensus votes, tracks a small paper account and estimates the LLM cost for summaries.
Provider
Twelve Data XAU/USD, 5-minute candles.
Current signal
WAIT
4 buy / 12 sell / 5 wait votes
Signal quality
LOW
choppy regime · 47/100 quality score
Gold price
$4,057.07
Latest XAU/USD candle close
Paper P&L
-$0.74
-0.37% on a $200 paper account
Proof status
Early
5 paper trades logged in this rolling sample
Shadow challenger
Gold Strategy V2
The existing strict 18/21 model remains the control. V2 also requires four of five capped evidence families, uses volatility-based risk and records only simulated trades.
Live orders disabled
Candidate action
WAIT
0/4 families aligned
Market state
TREND
london new york overlap
Durable paper ledger
COLLECTING
958 events · 2 closed trades
V2 paper equity
$199.28
-$0.72 net closed P&L
Independent evidence families
Unavailable external inputs are shown and never estimatedEntry trigger
WAITNo close beyond the previous 20-candle structure
Volatility state
WAITATR 0.089% is inside the tradable experiment range
Participation and liquidity
WAITlondon-new-york-overlap is an active Gold liquidity window; provider volume is not assumed
Asset-specific context
WAITGold macro context is not configured and is not fabricated.
Entry blockers: raw consensus below 18, fewer than 4 independent families
Risk experiment: 0.5% account risk · 2.5R target · costs included
This is an operational paper-monitoring checkpoint, not statistical proof of profitability. V2 cannot be promoted automatically, and this monitoring does not guarantee profit.
Gold consensus vote table
Threshold: 18/21Moving average 3/8
BUYCompares short-term gold direction against the longer trend.
Moving average 5/13
BUYCompares short-term gold direction against the longer trend.
Moving average 8/21
BUYCompares short-term gold direction against the longer trend.
Moving average 10/30
SELLCompares short-term gold direction against the longer trend.
Moving average 12/34
SELLCompares short-term gold direction against the longer trend.
Momentum 1 candles
SELLChecks whether spot gold improved over this recent 5-minute candle window.
Momentum 2 candles
SELLChecks whether spot gold improved over this recent 5-minute candle window.
Momentum 3 candles
SELLChecks whether spot gold improved over this recent 5-minute candle window.
Momentum 5 candles
SELLChecks whether spot gold improved over this recent 5-minute candle window.
Momentum 8 candles
BUYChecks whether spot gold improved over this recent 5-minute candle window.
Momentum 13 candles
SELLChecks whether spot gold improved over this recent 5-minute candle window.
Momentum 21 candles
SELLChecks whether spot gold improved over this recent 5-minute candle window.
Breakout 5 candles
WAITLooks for a close above recent highs or below recent lows.
Breakout 10 candles
WAITLooks for a close above recent highs or below recent lows.
Breakout 20 candles
WAITLooks for a close above recent highs or below recent lows.
Breakout 30 candles
WAITLooks for a close above recent highs or below recent lows.
RSI reversal
WAITFlags oversold or overbought conditions.
Range-confirmed candle
SELLRequires an unusually wide gold candle before trusting the last candle direction.
Last candle direction
SELLSimple last-candle direction vote.
Price above 20-candle average
SELLChecks whether gold is above the recent average.
Price above 50-candle average
SELLChecks whether gold is above the broader intraday average.
| Model | Vote | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Moving average 3/8 | BUY | Compares short-term gold direction against the longer trend. |
| Moving average 5/13 | BUY | Compares short-term gold direction against the longer trend. |
| Moving average 8/21 | BUY | Compares short-term gold direction against the longer trend. |
| Moving average 10/30 | SELL | Compares short-term gold direction against the longer trend. |
| Moving average 12/34 | SELL | Compares short-term gold direction against the longer trend. |
| Momentum 1 candles | SELL | Checks whether spot gold improved over this recent 5-minute candle window. |
| Momentum 2 candles | SELL | Checks whether spot gold improved over this recent 5-minute candle window. |
| Momentum 3 candles | SELL | Checks whether spot gold improved over this recent 5-minute candle window. |
| Momentum 5 candles | SELL | Checks whether spot gold improved over this recent 5-minute candle window. |
| Momentum 8 candles | BUY | Checks whether spot gold improved over this recent 5-minute candle window. |
| Momentum 13 candles | SELL | Checks whether spot gold improved over this recent 5-minute candle window. |
| Momentum 21 candles | SELL | Checks whether spot gold improved over this recent 5-minute candle window. |
| Breakout 5 candles | WAIT | Looks for a close above recent highs or below recent lows. |
| Breakout 10 candles | WAIT | Looks for a close above recent highs or below recent lows. |
| Breakout 20 candles | WAIT | Looks for a close above recent highs or below recent lows. |
| Breakout 30 candles | WAIT | Looks for a close above recent highs or below recent lows. |
| RSI reversal | WAIT | Flags oversold or overbought conditions. |
| Range-confirmed candle | SELL | Requires an unusually wide gold candle before trusting the last candle direction. |
| Last candle direction | SELL | Simple last-candle direction vote. |
| Price above 20-candle average | SELL | Checks whether gold is above the recent average. |
| Price above 50-candle average | SELL | Checks whether gold is above the broader intraday average. |
Daily chat-style summary
No gold trade should fire right now because consensus is below the threshold. The vote split is 4 buy, 12 sell and 5 wait out of 21. The rolling $200 paper test is down $0.74 before any live-trading decision.
Paper account
- Starting balance
- $200.00
- Ending balance
- $199.26
- Trade count
- 5
- Win rate
- 60.00%
- Max drawdown
- 0.71%
- Position
- FLAT
- Suggested action
- WAIT
- Last exit reason
- consensus-exit
- Risk controls
- SL 0.6% / TP 1.1% / Trail 0.4%
LLM cost tracker
- Model
- gpt-4o-mini
- Estimated per run
- $0.0006
- Estimated daily
- $0.17
- Estimated monthly
- $5.18
- Run cadence
- 288/day
- Tokens/run
- 2,000 in / 500 out
This is an estimated LLM cost tracker for BTC summary generation. It does not include market-data APIs, Vercel hosting, exchange fees or live-trading costs.
Safety note
This is paper-trading only. No live gold, CFD, futures or forex order is placed. This page is for tracking whether the gold idea deserves more testing. It is not financial advice and it does not execute orders.
A 60-90 day shadow run is an operational checkpoint only. Promotion requires cost-aware multi-regime walk-forward and untouched holdout evidence.
Source: Twelve Data XAU/USD 5-minute candles. Generated: 7/21/2026, 12:38:05 PM.